Archive for the ‘Econonic Check Up’ Category

Checking Stagflation

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

Checking in on the economy, seem stagflation has it’s grips set. Lowering inflation depends on lowering food and fuel prices which is something that has not happened in the last few years.

Until new energy technology emerges, it appears we are in the grips of slow growth and rising inflation. Overseas, inflationary trend persist as well.

The U.S. is on the brink of a recession with four years of home price gains wiped out from underneath. Seems like the flat economy will not end soon unless overhead costs for the average guy and gal comes down.

Personal Checking On The Stock

Wednesday, November 14th, 2007

Jim Cramer personally views the current stock market as “treacherous and horrible” but he reminds viewers that he feels the market hasn’t bottomed out yet. He warns not to buy into too much hope.

The huge 319..54 point rally on Wednesday, November 14, 2007 was, however, with puny volume. Not a very encouraging pop. But personally checking on the stock market, I found it was the best one day gain since November 2002. Note that most stocks follow the general market trend and at the moment the 200 day moving average seems to act as the floor support. It worked nicely yesterday.

Weak Dollar Looming — Personal Check into Switzerland Offshore Banks

Thursday, January 25th, 2007

Countries that are not democracies are now controlling America's financial future. Some of these countries are self-admitted enemies. They have a blank check they can cash at any time. The country’s financial future, and yours if you are invested in dollars, depends on a stable dollar. The dollar is loosing value. Even Warren Buffett is convinced we'll see a steady downward spiral to the value of the dollar that he's betting $16.5 billion dollars on the outcome. Both Warren Buffett and George Soros recently issued dire financial outlooks for the U.S.

Checking for a safe haven for all that cash? Although few have that cash surplus personal problem, a brief window on Swiss banks may be of benefit. All Swiss banks are regulated by the Federal Banking System, (FBS) and Switzerland has one of the world’s strongest economies. Due to strict government regulation, over one third of offshore bank accounts all over the world were said to be in Swiss banks. The confidentiality of Swiss banks is legendary and 5.6% of the Swiss working class is in the banking industry.

Nearly 70% of global currency reserves are now held by developing countries. The countries in the world adding reserves the fastest, and thus buying the most U.S. debt now are China, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. Venezuela and Iran are close behind. — none of them are democracies, all are suspect of future undermining the U.S. for political advantage.

They all have blank check IOU’s that we have to honor and can be cashed at any time. If they decide to cash in their personal checks at once a financial crises would occur. China would be effected the most since demand for their goods would be less in demand with a cheap dollar. Demand for these goods are elastic and price dependent.

Oil, on the other hand, is inelastic. No matter what, America needs foreign oil. No matter what the price, America is built on 4-wheels and can not move unless it has energy. If the dollar get weak, the price of foreign and domestic oil shoots up.

Compounding this is a record $800 billion account deficit and a $319 billion budget deficit. A swelling real estate bubble that's about to burst in the Northeast and California and a population that has virtually stopped saving and started borrowing such as it never has in the past. Mortgage delinquencies rise to levels not seen in five years. Some homeowners are simply walking away from their homes leaving the keys to the bank.

Our dependence on foreign oil has added greatly to our trade imbalance. Without alternative fuels and a tougher fuel-economy standard, the U.S. will continue to be dependent on foreign oil. Renewable fuels aren’t widely used because they are not as cost efficient. In answer to our dilemma, president George W. Bush proposes cutting gasoline by 20% via renewable fuels in ten years.

Before those ten years end, however, more communication and less transportation will hit home for me in a big way. Instead of executives pressing the flesh, in the future people will interact via video. Already on the drawing boards is interactive video creating a sensory feeling that distant colleagues and friends are actually sitting across the table. Your brain sees them as being in the same room and your mind sees them as community. The future need for meetings and transportation expenses will be reduced. But that is ten years in the making. What about the now?

In the past, a massive surge of factory building overseas to lower costs and increase profits as witnessed by the flow of goods into the Wallmart’s, Targets and major retail stores have left their mark. The strong dollar has brought low-priced goods from China and other developing countries into the U.S. Any prolonged attack on the dollar will lower it’s value and will be felt by an increase in the price of imported goods.

Large currency moves by China and the Arab countries dumping dollars are being witnessed at present. Many are predicting a fall in the dollar. Swiss banks offer greater currency stability to your wealth in the form of the Swiss franc. With any attack on the value of the dollar the Swiss banks offer a safe haven to anyone with a problem of safeguarding large amounts of cash. The Swiss have upheld strict faithfulness to client privacy and offer protection of assets and private information.

Although most of us are not in the position to worry about safe-guarding our money to the extent of opening a Swiss bank account, American’s great treasures, the entrepreneurs, may cash their personal checks in Swiss banks as a safe haven. Their capital preservation is essential to future domestic business and job creation.

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Job Market, Housing and Economic News Check

Monday, October 9th, 2006

Weak jobs market expected as housing starts turn down. Although a recession check-in isn’t making its appearance in the crystal ball yet, the odds for a decrease in spending as well as new and existing home sales are increasing.

The National Association of Realtors cited that new home sales slid 16.5% and expects existing house sales to fall 7.6% in ’06 U.S. manufacturing index fell and growth is cooling faster than expected according to The Institute for Supply Management, Hoping against a major hurricane, oil price spike or terrorist attack, the slow down may be mild.

 

The General Accounting Office (GAO) estimates 48,000 private security and military contractors (PMCs) are stationed in Iraq.

The Pentagon's insistence on keeping a lid on military force requirements (thereby avoiding the need for a draft) is one reason for that astronomical growth, which has boosted the fortunes that observers project the industry will be a $200 billion per year business by 2010.

People living in urban areas are having problems improving their quality of life. Increased property taxes and home prices make it impossible for people with low paying jobs to keep up.


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